16 March 2020 Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team Appendix Figure A1: Suppression strategy scenarios for US showing ICU bed requirements. The black line shows the unmitigated epidemic. Green shows a suppression strategy incorporating closure of schools and universities, case isolation and population-wide social distancing beginning in late March 2020. The orange line shows a containment strategy incorporating case isolation, household quarantine and population-wide social distancing. The red line is the estimated surge ICU bed capacity in US. The blue shading shows the 5-month period in which these interventions are assumed to remain in place. (B) shows the same data as in panel (A) but zoomed in on the lower levels of the graph. (A) 250 Surge critical care bed capacity dieion200 tla Do nothing ccups oopu150 de p Case isolation, household quarantine and be 0 of general social distancing rl ca0,00100 School and university closure, case cai 01 isolation and general social distancing tCriper 50 0 (B) 20 18 dieion16 tula14 ccups oop12 dbe ofp 10 re00 cal 00,8 caitir 016 rC pe 4 2 0 DOI: https://doi.org/10.25561/77482 Page 19 of 20